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Ojo! More Disasters are Ready to Happen in the Middle East

Spanish colloquial word, Ojo, meaning eye, expresses it all - careful - be on watch for the miscreants who have given us decades of war, civil strife, terrorism and destruction and have rarely had a day when they were not using their advanced weapons on some weak adversary.

Donald Trump

by Dan Lieberman

You do not have to be an insider, a foreign policy expert, or a political pundit to realize that the Unholy Trinity, the new axis of evil - United States, Israel and Saudi Arabia - are preparing joint military actions against Iran and Hezbollah.

The Spanish colloquial word, Ojo, meaning eye, expresses it all - careful - be on watch for the miscreants who have given us decades of war, civil strife, terrorism and destruction and have rarely had a day when they were not using their advanced weapons on some weak adversary. Events in the weeks of October, November, and early December 2017 tell the story.

The events:

(1) United States President Donald Trump refused to recertify the Iran nuclear agreement.
(2) Lebanon's Prime Minister Saad Hariri traveled to Saudi Arabia, where he announced his intended resignation because of fear of being targeted and because "Iran has a grip on the fate of the region's countries... Hezbollah is Iran's arm not just in Lebanon but in other Arab countries too."
(3) President Trump recognized Jerusalem as Israel's capital, a move that will certainly provoke all Muslim nations and people, especially Iran.(4) Syrian government reported that Israeli missiles and warplanes attacked a military base near Damascus, which is reportedly used by Hezbollah and Iranian militia.
(5) Severe propaganda against Hezbollah revives aged and unproven accusations. Politico magazine, in an article, How Trump Is Going After Hezbollah in America's Backyard, by Matthew Levitt, November 30, 2017.

The Trump administration is pushing back aggressively against what the intelligence community often refers to as the "Iran Threat Network" or ITN, and as part of that campaign it is especially keen to focus on the activities of Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian Lebanese militia, in Latin America. Now, new revelations about a Hezbollah cold case from 1994 underscore the importance of rolling back the group's footprint in the region.

…the group (ED: Hezbollah) sent a suicide bomber to take down a flight on Alas Chiricanas Airlines, a Panamanian commuter airliner carrying mostly Jewish passengers, including several Americans. The case languished for years, but the FBI appears to have recently collected new information which, together with evidence gleaned from other current investigations, is likely to serve as the basis for a variety of actions aimed at Hezbollah, the lynchpin of the ITN and Iran's most powerful proxy group.

(6) While pulverizing Yemen, Saudi Arabia accused Iran, without much evidence, of instigating and fortifying the Houthi's in Yemen.
(7) Talal Silo, a senior commander and acting spokesperson of the U.S.-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), told a Turkish news agency "the SDF was actually founded as a cover for the U.S. arms aid to the YPG, adding that the United States did not monitor the provided weapons."
(8) After Hadi al-Ameri, the head of the Iraq Badr Organization, said, in an interview with Iran's Press TV, November 30, 2017, that Iraq's Popular Mobilization Forces "will not allow a single U.S. soldier to remain in Iraq now that ISIS is being driven out of its last pockets in the country," U.S. CIA Director Mike Pompeo sent a letter to a top Iranian military official on December 2, 2017, and warned that "the United States would hold Tehran accountable for any attacks it conducted on American interests in Iraq."
(9) Jared Kushner, President Trump's Middle East peace envoy, met with Saudi Arabia officials, and reports indicate he did this without consulting the State Department.
(10) Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, in a speech during December, said the Islamic Republic seeks to "conquer the Middle East," and warned that Israel will not allow Iran to establish a foothold in Syria.

Why the sudden actions?

  • Syrian President Bashar al- Assad has strengthened his failing power and allowed Iran to establish a military presence in Syria.
  • Iran and Hezbollah have advanced their military capabilities and influence in the region.
  • Houthis remain as the principle power in Yemen
  • Kurds, who are friendly with Israel, failed to establish an independent state.
  • United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia all have growing internal problems and are exhibiting increased isolation from other nations. They need a diversion.
  • Russia is replacing the United States as the Middle East power broker
  • The call is out - Stop Iran and Hezbollah before it is too late.

What do they actually fear?

Israel and Saudi Arabia have been able to disguise their true fears, and these fears are not what many believe. Iran and Hezbollah are no direct threats to the Saudis. Neither of these appointed antagonists have the capability or power to attack the Arabian Peninsula. Even, if they could accomplish the task, neither of them could gain anything. The U.S. fleet in the Persian Gulf makes certain Iran does not cross the waterway. So, what is the problem?

The House of Saud has a major problem - it takes in all the revenue, as if it is the casino manager, and continues repressing the Shi'a citizens in the Eastern province. Because the Shi'a citizens of Saudi Arabia consider themselves to be the original inhabitants of the peninsula and sit on the oil fields without enjoying an equal share of the profits from the black gold, the kingdom fears a rebellion and assumes that Iran and Hezbollah will support that rebellion. Meanwhile, the paranoid Saudis react to every stroke of protest in the region as if they are being attacked and hide their support for the oppressors by pretending that the Islamic State and Hezbollah are the instigators of the oppressed reaching out for their justified rights. The Saudis, who are the culprits, play victim and use Iran and Hezbollah to disguise their nefarious actions.

Israel, which constantly expands territory by seizing Palestinian lands, is determined to control all of Jerusalem, including the Haram al/Sharif (why it needed U.S. recognition of Jerusalem as its capital), feels no remorse in totally destroying the Palestinians, and finds Iran and Hezbollah as the last standing antagonists who can prevent it from accomplishing the Zionist objectives. Other antagonists have been sidetracked

  • The Sudan, a perceived Israel antagonist, which had potential of becoming a major nation, has been carved up to become two hapless nations, much due to U.S. actions.
  • The U.S. invasion overthrew Saddam Hussein and prevented Iraq from becoming a major power in the Middle East and a threat to Israel.
  • Libya, another Israel antagonist, from NATO military actions, has been destroyed and driven to anarchy.
  • Egypt and Jordan have been pacified.
  • Saudi Arabia and Gulf States are not a threat.

Israel expected Syria's Assad would be defeated and a new government would eschew relations with Iran and Hezbollah. Overthrow of the Assad regime and replacement by a new government would deprive Hezbollah with a friendly border and easy access to its Iran ally. In Iraq, a Kurd success in establishing an independent state would have given Israel a lonely friend on the borders with Iraq and Iran. Because none of these expectations have been realized, a new approach to debilitating Iran and Hezbollah is being arranged.

Powerful and aggressive Israel behaves as the ultimate victim, mauling defenseless people, acting as if it is always being viciously attacked and must defend itself. Built on the most outrageous falsehoods and distortions of history (Israel's PM Netanyahu: “There is no more historically justified and correct step now than recognizing Jerusalem, which has been the capital of the Jewish people for the past 3,000 years, as the capital of Israel."), Israel condemns itself - if a nation cannot represent itself through historical truth and persists in acquiring identity by audacious prevarications, it is not a valid nation

The United States remains an anomaly in all the activities. Neither Sudan, nor Iraq, nor Libya posed any threat to the United States. Just the opposite from what was contemplated has happened; Iraq no longer counters Iran; the U.S. overthrow of Hussein has given Iran a dominant role in Iraq; the result of the Iraq and Libyan wars has been an expansion of international terrorism. Here we have the United States shedding blood to dethrone the leaders of states and not achieving any benefits but rather receiving more problems. Israel, which shed no blood, has received the major benefits. Is it improper to conclude that those who benefited mostly from the wars had maneuvered the United States into these engagements? The same with Syria - the United States has no interest in Syria and no reason to contend Hezbollah or Iran - neither of the latter is prepared to do damage to the United States. A revitalized Iran, with increased oil exports would benefit the United States by keeping oil prices low and enabling trade.

What are their objectives?

Evidently, the mighty triple alliance wants Iran and Hezbollah militarily subdued and Syria, similar to Jordan, as a pacified nation without contacts to Hezbollah and Iran. What can they do to achieve their objectives? They can

  • Keep Syria in a constant civil war and hope to install an anti-Iranian government - more years of death, destruction, and population displacement in Syria.
    Possible scenario.
  • Obtain agreements from Russia and Turkey that they will support a compromise, where Assad maintains present power, but Iran and Hezbollah leave Syria.
    Very likely.
  • Provoke a civil war in Lebanon in an effort to destroy Hezbollah's military wing.
    Unlikely the Lebanese will be drawn into this plan.
  • Continually bomb military bases in Syria and Lebanon.
    Might happen, but will need to go on forever.
  • Bomb military bases in Iran.
    Too much effort, with too many losses, and no decisive outcome.

Go through the options and no result will entirely satisfy the Unholy Trinity. Iran's homegrown military capability will still grow, Hezbollah will remain as an upstart, and Iran's influence in Iraq can expand. Iraq and Iran cannot be easily contended without severe repercussions

What could happen?

The United States, Israel, and Saudi Arabia have demonstrated their contempt for international law and willingness to use massive destruction to achieve their aims.

The U.S. has dropped an atomic bomb, and been quick to engage in wars in Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq, and Libya, which caused hundreds of thousands, if not millions of casualties.

Israel has fought several wars against defenseless adversaries in Lebanon and Gaza, tried out their new weapons against civilians, and inflicted horror on many populations.

Saudi Arabia, in Libya, Bahrain, and Yemen, has involved itself in military actions against others who cannot easily retaliate. In Yemen, where a sovereign nation is engaged in a protracted civil war, Saudi Arabia has mercilessly bombed civilian targets and is perpetrating catastrophes leading to starvation and disease.

Neither the United States, nor Israel, nor Saudi Arabia ever considers limits of power. They have shown they will use all power, regardless of the damage to others, to accomplish their objectives. This portends Ojo! More disasters are ready to happen in the Middle East. I recommend circulating this Ojo warning to every person in the world and stuffing it in the mailboxes of every responsible authority. The possibility of a huge conflict is not small, its occurrence will be brutal, and everyone will greatly suffer.

Ojo!
Beware!

 Dan Lieberman is DC based editor of Alternative Insight, a commentary on foreign policy, economics, and politics. He is author of the book A Third Party Can Succeed in America, a Kindle: The Artistry of a Dog, and a novel: The Victory (under a pen name)


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