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Viva Spring

ali-khameneiA glance at the champion of the blocks of power and capital in Iran
by Soheil Asefi

“We’ll have to see what happens next, but we approach this with the absolutely united view that we need to see the progress necessary for the confidence the international community needs.” EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton who is leading the nuclear negotiations with Iran said. Although the both sides, refused to discuss what the potential deal included.

The reports state that technical experts for each side will meet in Istanbul in mid-March to discuss the so-called international community’ offer and the high-level diplomats will re-convene again April 5 in Almaty. At the same time we are faced once again with a bunch of blusters of the both sides. Though the western sides have been gazumped with the same old excuses. Albeit their insatiable desire, we are witnesses the line of contacts. In the teeth of the dangers we have not forgotten that the continuing war of words between the current regime in Iran and the US and its allies will go on. In the similar lines the criminal sanctions of the so-called international community against the people of Iran as a tool for negotiation and escalating pressure on the Islamic Republic is going on.

Spring as a knowing choice

Nevertheless I am going to talk about the Spring now. Spring is one of the four conventional temperate seasons following winter and preceding summer though as we have heard dozens of times about recent upheavals in the Middle East and North Africa, the mainstream term of “Arab spring” have become the name of wide gaps in income levels and the years of neo-liberal policies in the regional dictatorships . Nevertheless when it comes to Iran recent upheavals the story is not that different. Another depoliticized mainstream term with a specific color which refer to the name of the colorful diverse protests of a number of the Iranian people in the turbulent aftermath of Iran's election in 2009, became another mainstream term. It seems during all these years we are faced with a bunch of newfangled terms in this category to reduce the notions, underlying causes, political terminologies and variant characteristics in different countries of the region to the colors and seasons in order to channelize the demands of averse people against dictatorship and neo-liberalism. Therefore in the similar lines if the known term “spring”, have become the knowing choice of one the representative of part of the bureaucratic emergent mad Iran’s capitalism in its dispute with the supreme leader’s forces, it does not seem like an indiscriminate utilization.

Long live fall?

The baddy of the mainstream media including the religious reformists and their neo-liberal cohort in Iran and the diaspora, amid his entire recent dispute with the supreme leader delivers a speech during a rally in Tehran to mark the 34th anniversary of the incomplete 1979 revolution on February 10. Resistance is in the air in Tehran, with calls of "Viva Spring" ushering in the election season and signaling that President Mahmud Ahmadinejad does not intend to go quietly. Though this time sounds way different with all the familiar well worn games over the elections. Changes have occurred. It is inevitable and unforeseen change is on the way thus it would  not be an unsupported claim if one take these upheavals as an extraordinary moment in the history of the Islamic Republic. The same day, "Viva Spring" surfaced on posters held by a number of individuals as they violently disrupted a speech in Qom by Ahmadinejad's rival, close to the supreme leader, parliament speaker Ali Larijani, prompting him to leave the scene. The hard-line  websites said chants in favor of Mashaei's presidency, a top adviser, and close confident of Iranian President, were also heard from the crowd.

Nevertheless Ahmadinejad has responded to the harsh criticism against him for saying “Viva spring,” claiming that what he said referred to the Hidden Imam. He asked perspicaciously, “What did you expect me to say, “Viva fall?” Responding to claims that he had been referring to the elections, once again the Shia hidden Imam came to help one of the known powers and capital blocks in the Islamic Republic. He said, “Is absolutely everything in the country connected to the elections? Are there no other issues in the country? I was speaking about the Mahdi.”

An eye for an eye

In the similar lines, Iranian television manipulates Ahmadinejad letter sent to Ayatollah Khamenei in reaction to his speech about dispute with Larijani brothers . In the censored part , Ahmadinejad say “” I am sure that you emphasize on protection of the constitution and the right of the nation and the position of president , who is the guardian of the constitution and the highest official of the country after the leadership and oppose any kind of action which limit his  authority and responsibilities ”. Larijani brothers reacted separately to Khamenei speech and apologize to Khamenei over infighting.

Meanwhile Iran's parliament has apologized to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei for a heated row during an impeachment session, joining the president, speaker and chief justice in pledging obedience to the supreme leader, in the Ahmadinejad’s recent  letter to Khamenei, predictably, there is no such thing like apologies, not even one iota of repentance or obedience. Moreover in the same time he admonished once again about the “engineering” the vote in the upcoming election. The matter is not just about a specific individual person by the name of Ahmadinejad. We are talking about the forces behind him which for the first time within the regime broke taboos – and earned themselves  instant political enemies – by challenging the authority of Khamenei in 2011 over the appointment of the powerful intelligence ministry post. So let us not think the seed corn evaporates with his removal from office. An eye for an eye!

The champion of the blocks of power and capital

As a matter of fact Iran is in the melting pot and a large number of Iranian activists and political observers, particularly the neoliberal forces in the Persian mainstream media,  have totally capitulated to recent upheavals. What the bad man Ahmadinejad is doing is way beyond their understanding or their short term plan which I mentioned earlier. Under the circumstances they have nothing to say but duplicating  themselves with a bunch of ifs and buts or make fun of him  in the mainstream media. We have not forgotten that the lack of full dress analysis is not just because of the fickle factors on the political stage and has not necessarily something to do with the fact of capricious nature of the current system, which after thirty  four years of  repression still is not a system.

Dare I say it, it is because of the ideological confusion among  a large part of the opposition. The forces that used to wait for the so-called international community during all these years. Recent upheavals in Iran which regrettably triggered to killing and arresting of dozens of unsullied Iranian people, especially youth during  Iran's post-election political unrest is another thing that makes them astray more than ever. Thus Ahmadinejad is just the bad man and there is no way to get into the roots.

We all know that the thesis is an intellectual proposition. The antithesis is simply the negation of the thesis, a reaction to the proposition. The synthesis solves the conflict between the thesis and antithesis by reconciling their common truths, and forming a new proposition.  This is a regime that has carried out different antithesis whilst overseeing extensive economic and social crises upon its born after an incomplete revolution in 1979. Thus one have not underestimate  the recent dispute between Ahmadinejad and the supreme leader with the argument that he has just some months left to upcoming election. Who is Ahmadinejad itself or Khamenei?! are they really prime movers or nothing but the representatives of different factions of ruling capital powers and entities which have no organic relations to those who do all the productive work?! 

As I mentioned earlier, during these years, we are faced  with a bunch of military leaders in Iran that have monopolized capital and power, striving to be accepted as a reputable member by the so-called international community. Political and economical interests of the bureaucratic emergent  mad capitalism that the gangs of Mashaei-Ahmadinejad represents part of it have been interned new parameters in the economic infrastructure and the political superstructure. The running serious dispute is about this parvenu daredevil  bourgeoisie and also the other center of powers especially the mercantile traditional  capitalism which parliament speaker Ali Larijani is one of its representative, cannot come together in a receptacle, thus creating a change in the structure of the regime have become essential.  It is all about the nature of the regime, which has take advantage from the current capitalist crisis and vicious policies of the US and its allies. The differences this time is about the existence of the forces behind a  hoodlum, just in line with the core of power with dozens of handles in ongoing political exercise. How long can the situation last? still too early to say, though no matter if any of  Ahmadinejad men become the next president of Iran or not. The current of events will show us the realignment. Literally no one knows about its final and any likely convergence.  If Mashaei  would not be approved by the Guardian Council for candidacy ,Ahmadinejad resigned? Though reports say the system have discussed plans for all contingencies for Ahmadinejad’s possible future actions it is not that simple as the mainstream media reflected and reduced things to the “populist moves”.  A confidential US diplomatic cable revealed by WikiLeaks said the incident underlined Mashaei's significance in Ahmadinejad's team.

We face a wide range force from inside and outside of the regime to represent an amenable alternative for the U.S and its interests. That figures thus vultures also like always are clear the deck to take advantage from any kind of likely chaos in the coming process.

On the other hand, the fact is there is no such thing like political virtue in Iran political sphere today. Neither reformists nor its cohort in the diaspora with this or that colorful movement and support of the mainstream media nor other political actors including  pro Ahmadinejad or pro Khamenei, had any structured economic plans or ways out of the crisis except the prescriptions of the IMF.  

Shifting from lay people to clerics?

In the similar lines, meanwhile some of the political observers believe that the next president may be the last president of the Islamic Republic (Previously this year, Ayatollah Khamenei had suggested the possibility of moving from a presidential system to a parliamentary system) the religious reformists and their cohort within Iran and diaspora started to strive for the candidacy of former reformist president Khatami to run in the elections. The irony is shifting  from a bunch of lay people like Ahmadinejad , Mashaei, Velayati, Larijani, Ghalibaf etc to a cleric have become their target and political agenda to breathe life to this political carrion , a return to the political sphere.

Recently Ali Akbar Velayati, a former foreign minister who is among the conservative “principlists” loyal to the concept of clerical rule, told the state-run Fars News Agency. They view Ahmadinejad and his allies as “deviators” from the ideas of “the Islamic revolution”. The alumni of  Johns Hopkins University, currently  the advisor on international affairs to the supreme leader is another name that we have heard for the upcoming elections in Iran. Meanwhile the latest palaver over Ahmadinejad’s picture with mother of late president of Venezuela Hugo Chavez, when the bust so-called opposition in the diaspora on the Facebook was making joke and banal talks and arguments about a humanitarian moment in the photo, Iran clerics take Ahmadinejad to task for hugging Chavez's mother at funeral. It is not just an empty cup.

As a matter of fact, the necessities of making a deal with the US have become inextricable more than ever. Inextricable connection between past and present. The time for jurists in the system is over and part of the ruling capitalism in Iran know it better than all the hue and cry in their adversaries and various think thanks in the U.S.  The champion of the blocks of power and capital is going on.

A “revolutionary leader” with adept diplomats

 Vortex of politics in Iran today has many lessons for one who wants to see beyond the ongoing hocus-pocus. Though it is not such a big deal that who is going to replace with Ahmadinejad in the upcoming election. While these commentators playact for a while and reiterate some bogus old anti-US claims, we are fast approaching a new episode in this drama which has a profound impact on the Iranian people. It was interesting that the way mainstream media get into the recent Khamenei speech. They just highlighted the part, where he said "some narrow-minded people like the idea of negotiating with America, however negotiations do not solve the problem," though in this speech he forthwith added "I am not a diplomat, I am a revolutionary. So I talk openly and honestly," so Iran former president and “honest revolutionary leader” now, with his adept diplomats, whom we read dozens of times their hums with the US in most important American think-thanks output will play a big role in the ongoing process.

Along similar lines with repeating a bunch of rhetoric in his recent trip in the East Azerbaijan, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic has confirmed the negotiation with the US for the first time. He referred to the Americans' move to break off negotiations whenever they have nothing to say in the face of Iran's reasonable statements: "During the past 15 years, the Americans requested Iran to negotiate with them two or three times, stressing those negotiations are very necessary, urgent and vital. One or two executive officials went and negotiated with them. But as soon as they had no response to Iran's reasonable statements, they broke off negotiations. And by using their global media networks, they pretended that Iran had broken off the negotiations."Though he does not say something that irrelevant, due to its nature the so-called international community wants it all.  Nevertheless it seems the shoo-in is part of the Iranian militarized capitalism. Nevertheless  the regime’s former ambassador to Germany during the period of the Mykonos operation in which Kurdish leaders were massacred in Berlin in 1992 and Iran's former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian living in the US and working as a research fellow at Princeton University  told the BBC recently, in the upcoming election, Iran's foreign policy needs a president loyal to the Supreme leader and Ali Khamenei is ready to a fair deal.

Albeit who knows what is Ahmadinejad next move? so the change that seems to be in the pipeline takes time and we should not expect any sudden overnight galvanic transformation. It has in fact already begun but you can barely find a mention of it in the mainstream media.  Needless to say that any kind of unexpected event could help this process. The necessity for change seems inevitable in Iran today. The tough situation can not last long anymore. The barefaced pointed sword of the so-called international community through the incapable neck of a regime, which recently find out to implement resistance economy amid its tyranny and corruption has a lot to say and at the same time it is like a mirror image for many concerned Iranian eyes.

The brutal sanctions and “Mahmoud”

As I mentioned earlier the situation in Iran deteriorating day by day. Iran's economy is on the verge of collapse. The Iranian rial has dived down more than 50 percent. All income has been reduced about 50 percent. The economy in Iran is under tremendous amount of tension and pressure. Iran's currency hits all-time low. People are suffering. As I expressed earlier it seems bringing the people of Iran to their knees is the true intentions of the so-called international community. At the same time, we are faced with hair-raising account of  government corruption and mismanagement these days. This crisis has been caused by the brutal sanctions. At the same time rivalries and infighting within the regime is reaching an unprecedented level. Prior to elections, it usually opens up the political space a little bit in order to give the impression that there is going to be a real and valid choice. This time around, the regime doing the opposite. They arrested and  released   dozens of journalists in neoliberal reformist papers  which keep the pot boiling for its cohort and the pro western activists in the diaspora.  So there seems to be an intimidation campaign going on, which most likely is rooted in the fact that the regime is extremely strained about its own political survival.

Nevertheless the brutal sanctions of the so-called international community might be touch off sporadic violence what the sanctions policy makers called hunger riots, though in light of the lassitude of an unattached opposition, inevitable failure of the Islamic Republic in Iran and the balance of power could trigger to an unforeseen adverse circumstances when the occasion demands for any kind of the so-called humanitarian intervention. Although for the seasoned political observers it does not seem that the U.S and its allies tend to go toward an unstable Iran in the region and a country like Iran as a troubled area would not be the case. Thus the secession scenario does not meet condition though there is not any cut-and direct assurance.

 In the similar lines, another move of “Mahmoud”, what some people in the progressive forces within Iran used to ironically call him with his first name against the banal agenda of his rivals, including pro Khamenei  forces and reformists and cohort, is Iran-Argentina deal on AMIA. On January 27, Iran and Argentina signed a memorandum of understanding to shed light on the bombing on the building of the Israeli-Argentine Mutual Association (AMIA) in Buenos Aires that killed 85 people. The Israeli regime reacted angrily to the deal a day after it was signed. The point is the names of Ahmadinejad most important rivals are on the list of defendants list. The political chaos is taking its turn, yet no one knows what will cast the other string of Iran bourgeoisie's bow against the rival party including the reactionary Khamenei forces .The unwritten law constitutes the hungry wolves tearing each other apart, and eating each other. Importantly the legitimate of Guardianship of the Jurist or Providence of the Jurist (Wilayat al Faqih)in Iran is on the line. The Supreme Leader staked out his position. This puppet does not work anymore and the point is the political actors are all aware of the fact. Thus the dialectical process of beginning of  the end in end to end of sequences has already begun though the moot point is about its cost. There are many factors on the table. Believe it or not the power rests to a bunch of military people and who care if the game goes on under the name of the Islamic Republic or not  if during the ongoing process the maddening abeyance of Iranian people decreases, one iota though.

Viva Spring

Above all, amid the back-breaking situation of the people of Iran, when the cost of living has raised about three times more,  Norooz,  the first day of spring and the beginning of the year in Iranian calendar is on the way. Many Iranians are going to sit around the familiar Persian  table with seven items that starts with the letter “S” (in Persian). These items are as follows: Seeb (apple), representing Beauty; Senjed (ash fruit) for Love; Sekkeh (coin) for Prosperity; Samanoo (pudding) for Sweetness; Somaq (sumac) for Taste; Seer (garlic) for Health; and Serke (vinegar) for Patience. On the table we also put a mirror to symbolize reflection, candles as light and peace, and sprouts as life and the roots of family and friends and sometimes  a glass of red wine.

Soheil Asefi is an independent Iranian journalist in Berlin. He left Iran some years ago after a ten- year professional experience of major Iranian media outlets. He was in prison and was released on bail. He came to Germany as the guest of the City of Nuremberg under the project ‘Writers in Exile’ funded by the German Pen Center. He is the recipient of the Hermann Kasten award in Nuremberg. Follow Soheil Asefi on Twitter:  https://twitter.com/SoheilAsefi


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